Over the past few days, several prominent media types have wondered out loud about how anyone could not want to play with Steve Nash, the consensus (at least in the mainstream) greatest point guard in the league and ultimate distributor of the world. These writers’ takes have come somewhere between outrage and bewilderment. In almost all cases, people just can’t understand why Marion would ever want to leave Steve Nash.
Thankfully, many citizens of Blogburgh have responded with a more respectable view of this situation. In his take on the trade request, David Friedman of 20 Second Timeout wrote a paragraph so good that I will simply reproduce it here:
The Marion story flies in the face of two pieces of "conventional wisdom" that the mainstream media touts: 1) Everyone in the NBA would love to play with Steve Nash and would accept less money to do so; 2) Nobody in the NBA wants to play with Kobe Bryant. Therefore, rather than simply reporting the facts, it will not be too long before many media outlets spin this story to fit in with "conventional wisdom." It will be interesting to watch this unfold and see if the spin becomes an attack on Marion for being "selfish," an attack on Marion for not being that valuable of a player or if somehow someone figures out a way to blame this all on Bryant. Rest assured that the face value facts--Marion wants to be traded from Phoenix to the Lakers--will not be simply reported as such for very long.
I couldn’t put it any better. Instead of dismissing Marion’s issue with the Suns as unreasonable hogwash, let’s try to answer the heretofore rhetorical question and figure out how anyone could not want to play with Steve Nash. (I should also give props to everyone in the FD comments. The idea for this post started there.) Before starting this exercise, I’d like to make it clear that I imagine Steve Nash is fun to play with. Teammates have spoken well of him for years; Marion is certainly an exception and not the rule.
However, that doesn’t mean that Nash’s game doesn’t have some traits that would irk a player of Marion’s caliber. For all his skills as a distributor, Nash gets many of his assists after creating angles with his dribble. When he uses that tactic, he uses up the majority of the possession with the ball in his hands, meaning that the finisher really only has to catch the ball and lay it in. Logically, that shouldn’t be a problem for the finisher, but Nash’s controlling of the ball necessarily focuses most of the attention on him. The other players, who still receive a fair share of attention, become known more as finishers than they would be otherwise.
The media attention that Nash receives compounds this problem. It’s not uncommon for a point guard to get attention, but Nash’s reputation as Ultimate Team Player A-#1 doesn’t perfectly match his penchant for controlling possessions, although they do certainly match closely. Any praise given to Nash for being a fantastic teammate must sting a player that knows he’s capable of being more than a clean-up man, which is a role that Marion and the other Suns often play.
In the end, I think it’s exactly that knowledge that makes this situation tough for Marion. If he hadn’t been successful without Nash, I’m sure he’d be less willing to part, but the fact that Marion was an all-star before Nash arrived means that he knows he can get more attention on another team. His willingness to leave Phoenix might seem odd, but it’s not insane by any stretch.
The rumor mill is in full effect. According to Sporting News (via Ballhype, which really means via AZ Sports Hub and some other dudes, doesn't it?), an anonymous source claims there's a 50-50 chance of seeing an Odom-for-Marion blockbuster. Couple that with his fairly-legitimate-sounding trade demand and I think it's fair game to start getting mildly excited.
I know what you're thinking. We all remember what happened last time I got excited when a player the Lakers coveted made a "trade demand." [Tangent: have we ever had a summer filled with so many false threats and half-assed demands?] And god knows how long I've been advocating the AK-for-Odom hotness, which Kirilenko's vocal displeasure seems to have advanced none at all. So what makes this idle speculation any different than the past examples? Nothing, really, but I feel compelled to weigh in nonetheless, mostly because we don't got much else to talk about just yet.
First off, we've already shown that numbers don't lie and Odom isn't as good as I might want to believe he is. Seriously, though, in the PER-battle, Marion wins handily, hitting a career-high of 23.6 with Amare not around and cracking 20 in four other years. Odom peaked at 18.9 his sophomore year and has been under 18 in all three of his years on this end of Staples. (Hypocrite, you say? Agreed) Couple that with the fact that Marion's probably the best (or at least the most versatile) defensive player in the game, and it's hard not to see Marion as an upgrade. The real clincher for me, however, is that Marion hasn't dipped below 79 games a season since his rookie year. Odom, on the other hand, has missed an average of almost 20 games per season. That health upgrade alone could be worth an extra four or five wins over the course of a season. Honestly, the fact that Odom's behind on his recovery from shoulder surgery (via FB&G) and other GMs are even still looking at him is amazing to me.
There are a few downsides worth considering. Losing Odom's passing is probably the biggest problem I see. Not having Odom around would put a lot of pressure on Fisher, Farmar, and Luke to distribute. It's also worth considering that familiarity with the triangle is often cited as one of the most important factors for excelling in it. Odom in his fourth year in the system probably has a considerable edge over Marion in his first. The extra $3 million owed to Marion is also not insignificant, but a contract like Cook's would have to be included to balance the books, making the impact on the team's cap negligible (as far as I understand). At this point, there aren't a whole lot of non-lateral type of moves left out there, and this might be the best chance for the Lakers to make an upgrade. However, the deal would still have its drawbacks. Losing Cook would probably make the guys that made this video extremely happy, but the truth is the lost depth at PF could hurt down the road.
Would this move make the Lakers contenders? Probably not. Do I think that's a fair standard by which to judge all transactions? Definitely not. The bottom line for me is that trading Odom for Marion shows a willingness mix things up. As currently configured, the Lakers would be hard-pressed to make much noise come playoff time. Shoring up one of their major weaknesses (defense) and appeasing Kobe by acquiring a close friend of his (who's already saying things like the Lakes have "a great organization, great ownership") make this possible trade worth the risk.
Whenever a star gets traded, any fan of a team not receiving him feels some sense of disappointment, if only because a superstar was available and the team failed to pick him up. Such is the case with Kevin Garnett, except this time it’s even worse because everyone has to listen to insufferable Celtics fans yapping about the inevitable resurgence of the greatest franchise in the history of organized basketball. (I kid, sorta. Like Billups said earlier today, the Celtics are now about three aging stars trying to win, not some return of the shillelagh.)
For a few teams, though, this trade stings more than for others. The Suns, Warriors, Lakers, and Bulls all had better-than-awful chances to deal for Garnett, but circumstances left them on the sidelines. Where do they go from here? Can they take any consolation in what transpired?
Phoenix Suns I already submitted my thoughts on Phoenix’s offseason last week: they’ve only gotten worse, but this trade should make it even more clear that the Suns have had a dismal summer. Right around draft night, the Suns were close to landing KG in a three-team deal, with Amare as the main piece. That deal fell through due to numerous factors (including the Hawks deciding they didn’t want an All-NBA player), and after the draft the Suns quickly fell off the list of strong contenders for Garnett. After taking Amare off the table, it looked tough for Phoenix to get a third party involved.
Yet KG seemed to doom Boston’s hopes of landing him during the week of the draft, and he still ended up in green. Things clearly changed when Ainge acquired Ray Allen, but the Celtics still had to convince Garnett that he would enjoy being a Celtic. Where was that kind of perseverance from the Suns? Amare and Shawn Marion are tradeable pieces in spite of their big contracts, and it was Steve Kerr’s job to get creative and swing a deal. I realize that Sarver restricts Kerr’s ability to take on contracts, but he must have signed off on KG at some point if Kerr tried to get him in late June. I love Amare to death, but Garnett would have come as close to guaranteeing them a championship in the next two years as any trade could have. You have to make that leap.
This situation would probably be easier to take for Suns fans if Sarver ever gave any indication that he cared about winning a championship. When the news broke on Sunday night, though, I’m sure he was sleeping on a pile of money with many beautiful ladies.
Will the Suns do anything else of substance this summer? Of course not, because that would cost money.
Golden State Warriors If we take Tim Kawakami’s sources at their words, the Warriors were a miscommunication between McHale and MJ away from getting Garnett for Monta, Richardson, and Al Harrington. That wouldn’t have been a bad trade; the KG/Andris combo inside would have stood toe-to-toe with any frontcourt in the league. But, alas, the geography major at UNC didn’t teach His Airness how to make phone calls, so no luck there. All evidence shows that Mullin tried to work something out with McHale after the trade. In the end, no Warriors package other than Andris, Monta, Harrington, and a lot more cap filler would have surpassed the quality of the Boston package, and I’ve never been a fan of putting Monta and Andris in the same deal.
GSW currently has the same major hole at power forward that they did at the beginning of the summer. Options approaching KG’s caliber are basically nonexistent now; fast power forwards who can rebound and defend don’t stay on the market for long. AK47 would be a tremendous fit, but I don’t see a wing on the roster who fits what Jerry Sloan wants to do.
Drew Gooden’s name has been mentioned in rumors, and he’s a strong enough rebounder to make him a decent option in spite of the fact that he doesn’t play much defense. The major issue with that trade involves money: the trade exception could be used on Gooden for this year, but the following year his salary would put the Warriors over the luxury tax should management do the right thing and reup Monta/Andris. At any rate, Gooden probably wouldn’t make a big difference in a playoff series. I’ve resigned myself to the Warriors not making another big move this offseason, which would be tougher to handle if I didn’t like every player on the team not named O’Bryant.
Los Angeles Lakers I doubt the Lakers were ever serious contenders for Garnett; McHale never seemed to like the Bynum/Odom package much, and in today's press conference KG said he wasn't interested in the Lakers because of the uncertainty surrounding Kobe. The Lakers are on this list almost exclusively for what the trade does for Kobe’s emotional state. Logically, this thing would upset him, but I believe more and more everyday that Kobe is insane, so who knows what he’s thinking. It’s entirely possible that he’s devoting himself to finding rare Hakeem tapes for Andrew Bynum.
Here's the thing: Kobe’s desires shouldn’t affect the Lakers at all in this case, because he’s the best player in the NBA and anyone with a half a brain should do his best to give the best player in the NBA some help. The Lakers have no direction, though, so too bad for Mamba.
I adore Odom (so misused on this team) and sorta like Bynum (not as a perennial all-star like some Lakers fans seem to think, but he’ll be solid for years), but someone like Jermaine O’Neal would do wonders for this team. Carter (and most Lakers fans, it seems) thinks that it's not worth it if Odom has to be part of the deal. I disagree, citing Odom's poor fit on the roster and the two-star/role player game plan. Additionally, Carter often tells me how the Lakers don’t need to do anything except surround Kobe with decent role players if they want to be a middle seed. I think that’s right, but screw being a four seed. Get another star and challenge for a championship; that system works. The last name won’t fool anyone into thinking that Jermaine is Shaq, but at least LA will be real again. The front office needs to stop making this whole Kobe thing harder than it actually is.
Chicago Bulls For my money, the biggest losers here. They have the most tradeable pieces on their roster, so enough players would have still been around to make them a legitimate contender in either conference. Adding to that point, all those players are young enough to make them attractive to the Minnesota rebuilding process. KG also played his high school ball in Chicago, so the geographical ties are there. Bill Simmons claims that Paxson rolling over PJ Brown’s contract one more year would have made it a sure thing; I’m not convinced they couldn’t have worked something out this summer anyway with some creative trading. Now KG’s playing for one of their traditional conference rivals. Oops.
The Bulls still need a reliable post scorer if they want to take the next step, and Pau Gasol seems like the best big-time option. Again, they have the pieces needed to make a deal, although it’s very possible that Memphis doesn’t want to trade Gasol now that they have the makings of a pretty solid team.
The best case scenario for Chicago would probably involve Kobe flipping out on the Lakers again and demanding a trade. The Bulls are the most obvious destination for him, so it would once again come down to Paxson having to pull the trigger. I wouldn’t hold my breath.
Last week, the Suns traded Kurt Thomas and two future first-round draft picks to the Sonics for a conditional second-round pick. The trade is obviously a cap-related move for the Suns, and it does in fact put them out of the luxury tax bracket. But it’s also an awful move on virtually every other level. It puts them in a worse position next year, in future years, and arguably in a long-term financial sense, as well. Unless a trade for a major post presence pops up in the next few months, this team did nothing to improve itself heading into next season.
These issues have been covered on other sites. Brian McCormick points out that keeping rookies actually helps the salary cap long-term, which makes the Suns decisions to sign guys like Diaw to huge contracts questionable. Why keep Marcus Banks when you can sign Rudy Fernandez; he could even stay in Spain for a year or two to limit the cap hit. McCormick also observes that it doesn’t make sense to sign Sean Marks when you can get a rookie who sits on the bench just as well for fewer dollars. Additionally, PAR of the Ltd. Hoops Blog says that this will leave Phoenix at a disadvantage when it comes to defending the Duncans, Garnetts, and Boozers of the West next year; Thomas was the Suns’ best post defender…and it’s a big step down to Amare.
At the same time, it’s not like the Suns won’t be competitive. They’ve played with Marion, Diaw, and Amare as their main big guys before. Remember, for instance, that the 04-05 team ran Amare and Marion at the four and five every game and did just fine. That team was also much more exciting than any of the franchise’s last few incarnations, so this recommitment to threes and dunks could make for some damn watchable basketball.
But if that’s the direction they wanted to head in, why not commit to it fully? The Thomas trade also renders the other moves of the Suns’ offseason questionable. The drafting of Alando Tucker didn’t make much sense at the time considering that Tucker doesn’t consistently make threes, but it makes even less sense now that they have to play shooters who can run. Why not take Morris Almond or Derrick Byars instead?
The sale of this year’s draft pick to Portland doesn’t make a great deal of sense to begin with for the reasons outlined by McCormick, but why include James Jones, a shooter, when they could have thrown in a less necessary piece?
I wasn’t a huge fan of the Grant Hill signing at the time because of his age, bad legs, and lack of outside shooting, but it makes even less sense now. It’s nice that they got him for cheap, I guess, although cheap doesn’t matter much when they need shooters. If you’re going to try to save money, at least do it with an eye towards the team identity. Pairing Hill with Thomas in a slow-it-down lineup at least made some sense.
That leaves Nash, Barbosa, Marion, and Raja to chuck as many threes as they can next season. An impressive group, to be sure, but nothing close to the Joe Johnson, Q Richardson, Leandro, Nash, Marion, Jim Jackson, and even motherflippin’ Casey Jacobsen group from 04-05. So let’s not assume we’re getting a repeat. I guess Kerr could add another shooter, but I don’t know how that’s possible when Sarver et al. are so scared of the luxury tax.
For that matter, why the hell are they terrified of the luxury tax in the first place? This team was two bad David Stern suspension decisions (no unfounded Donaghy blame here) from a likely championship this year. I realize the luxury tax is a bummer, but winning an O'Brien brings extra revenue from playoff ticket sales, merchandise sales (I realize offsite merchandising gets split among every team, but I think they would have made plenty), and general “team of the league” wonderfulness (not technically a revenue stream).
I think it comes down to the organization having no concept of their window. This team is built around Steve Nash, who has no more than three prime years left (and likely fewer). Unless the Hawks have another awful year (very possible), it’s unlikely the Suns will get a point with that pick with the potential to match Nash at any point in his career. Even then, the only guy who fits that bill is Derrick Rose. Additionally, the Suns without Nash will still have cap problems because of the Marion/Amare/Diaw contracts, so it’s not as if they’re heading for calm rebuilding waters.
So why not go for broke now? There’s nothing to lose except a few million. It’s the same reason they should have gone full bore for KG (and maybe they still are, although I’m not sure how it’d work) and not thought twice about dangling Amare. You only get so many chances. Carpe diem that shit.
